22 April 2007

French election, first round

It will be a two-way battle between Sarkozy, who has 30% of the vote, and Royal, with 24%.

Centrist Bayrou's supporters will be up for grabs.

Le Pen came in fourth at 11%, and won't be doing a repeat of 2002, when he made it to the second round.

France's election results will have ramifications for the rest of the world as well, as Nicolas Sarkozy, though not as extreme as Le Pen, represents a faction that is a lot like the George W. Bush regime in the US. The neoconservatives and neoliberals are all banking on him, and I won't be surprised if he is getting help from US right-wingers as well. If Sarkozy wins, France will take the same direction taken by Tony Blair of the UK and Angela Merkel of Germany.

On the other hand, if Segolene Royal wins, France will go more in the direction of Spain and Italy, which have said a NO to American-style conservatism, by electing leftist leaders. Royal will also make history as France's first female president.

In any case, I expect the results of the French election to influence outcomes in other nations around the world, including the US, where there won't be any strong incumbent for the 2008 presidential race, and where an evenly divided electorate will decide which party gets the White House.